Class AAAA Section Previews

It is never too early to look at how the state sections are shaping up so today I will start.

Section 1AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 20	Rochester John Marshall (83.0)	8	1	15	5	51.0	41.4	Won 1
No. 30	Rochester Century (68.1)	7	3	15	6	55.6	49.5	Won 4
No. 33	Northfield (66.7)	2	1	13	8	53.2	51.3	Won 1
No. 43	Farmington (58.0)	4	3	10	12	56.6	59.8	Lost 1
No. 53	Owatonna (47.0)	3	4	9	13	48.9	54.2	Lost 2
No. 57	Winona (43.1)	2	6	7	12	51.4	57.2	Won 1
No. 55	Hastings (45.5)	2	2	5	16	46.0	54.8	Lost 1
No. 63	Rochester Mayo (30.1)	0	8	3	17	45.5	58.4	Lost 3

The above tool is from www.Minnesota-scores.net. They break it down in a few ways as you can see, for this section using this tool would be a great gage with the seeding coming out pretty close to this.

Section 2AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 13	Richfield (96.7)	2	0	19	2	72.4	48.0	Won 17
No. 3	Chaska (115.2)	5	1	18	4	61.3	49.9	Lost 1
No. 14	Bloomington Kennedy (94.7)	4	0	16	5	62.7	56.0	Won 2
No. 10	Eden Prairie (102.7)	2	3	15	8	65.3	58.4	Won 2
No. 46	Shakopee (57.2)	0	2	13	8	47.6	43.3	Won 1
No. 17	Edina (93.0)	1	3	11	9	54.8	51.0	Lost 4
No. 26	Prior Lake (73.9)	1	3	10	12	57.3	60.9	Lost 1
No. 42	Bloomington Jefferson (58.9)	2	5	8	13	50.6	50.4	Lost 8

Now we get a little more controversial. As you can see, by both sectional record and overall record Richfield should get the number 1 seed. But wait....Kennedy also is undefeated in sectional match ups, AND they beat Chaska in January. Richfield has shown consistency by winning 19 games, 17 in a row AND defeated a team that beat them earlier. Chaska by far has played the toughest schedule, both in and out of conference.

If you go by record then the order will be as above. I think it should go Chaska, Kennedy, Richfield, Eden Prairie, and Edina, Flip a coin for the last 3.

Section 3AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 6	Lakeville North (110.6)	9	1	17	6	59.8	48.7	Won 1
No. 18	Eastview (90.9)	11	1	15	7	64.9	58.1	Won 1
No. 31	Eagan (68.0)	4	5	10	11	59.7	63.3	Lost 1
No. 23	Burnsville (79.6)	3	7	10	12	60.4	60.3	Won 2
No. 37	Lakeville South (64.0)	2	8	10	12	49.4	53.5	Lost 2
No. 27	Rosemount (72.9)	5	5	9	12	62.8	64.5	Won 2
No. 44	Apple Valley (57.8)	2	8	6	17	58.9	66.9	Lost 3
No. 51	Park of Cottage Grove (47.9)	0	1	4	16	48.5	57.0	Won 1

This section was hit by the injury bug. Lakeville North is the clear favorite based upon talent and record but Eastview was the winner last year and Eagan can sneak up on folks but consistency is the issue there.

Section 4AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 9	Woodbury (104.0)	6	0	17	3	57.2	45.8	Won 4
No. 24	St. Paul Central (79.1)	1	0	18	5	66.0	44.7	Won 7
No. 16	White Bear Lake (93.5)	7	1	16	6	59.5	50.5	Won 5
No. 35	Stillwater Area (65.3)	5	4	11	11	51.5	52.5	Won 1
No. 58	Henry Sibley (42.7)	0	3	10	11	53.0	52.0	Lost 4
No. 54	Tartan (46.5)	3	4	9	13	48.3	54.5	Lost 1
No. 56	North St. Paul (45.4)	1	4	7	15	50.7	54.2	Won 2
No. 48	Cretin-Derham Hall (54.4)	0	7	6	15	52.3	61.7	Won 2

Last year no one gave Central a chance to win the title except maybe just 1 person bold enough to predict it as early as mid January ---- ME. Not this time. As much as I believe in the love hate coaching style that Willie and Tom have, and that gives Central some unpredictability, I think Woodbury can be strong enough to come out of this balanced section. Watch out for White Bear Lake!!!

Section 5AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 2	Centennial (121.0)	7	1	20	2	72.1	55.7	Won 12
No. 11	Champlin Park (97.9)	7	4	18	4	65.9	55.4	Lost 1
No. 7	Osseo (107.3)	6	1	17	5	60.2	48.3	Won 2
No. 15	Mounds View (94.5)	3	1	15	7	47.8	41.4	Lost 1
No. 45	Irondale (57.6)	1	2	12	8	54.3	48.8	Won 1
No. 29	Roseville (71.6)	0	4	12	9	57.9	54.4	Lost 2
No. 19	Maple Grove (85.0)	0	6	12	10	57.0	55.1	Lost 2
No. 61	Park Center (38.8)	1	6	6	15	51.0	61.2	Lost 1

If you had to pick the most disappointing team over the past 3 years (in terms of how they finished) Centennial would have to be in the top 2. Not this year.

Section 6AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 1	Hopkins (135.3)	3	2	21	2	68.8	49.1	Won 2
No. 5	Minneapolis South (111.2)	3	1	21	2	71.2	45.3	Won 18
No. 4	Robbinsdale Armstrong (114.6)	5	2	18	3	64.5	52.0	Won 4
No. 12	Wayzata (97.4)	3	1	12	8	54.6	50.6	Lost 1
No. 22	Minnetonka (80.5)	2	4	12	11	59.2	55.3	Lost 4
No. 59	Minneapolis Southwest (42.0)	1	3	10	12	48.5	48.6	Won 2
No. 51	Robbinsdale Cooper (47.9)	2	4	9	12	47.5	48.7	Won 1
No. 64	St. Louis Park (21.5)	0	2	2	18	38.3	53.4	Lost 1

First a personal note on this section - I have followed most of these teams very closely all season because I do the Podcasts for Hopkins. That aside, Welcome to the pre-state tournament tournament!

Based upon records, with sectional records being the tie breaker South gets the #1 seed. But wait. An argument is being made that the QRF ranking (basically based upon schedule strength) should be the tie-breaker. But wait. How do you control the quality of the teams you play in the conference? Without taking away from season records let’s look at non-conference schedules alone.

To date the average QRF of South's non-conference schedule is 99.9. For Hopkins the average is 88.5. Based upon this South still gets the 1 seed.

But wait.....Armstrong and Wayzata will have something to say about this yet with 1 game vs. Hopkins left for each and a rematch of Wayzata vs. Armstrong is yet to come as well.

Section 7AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 21	St. Francis (81.9)	2	0	19	3	63.3	48.2	Won 7
No. 41	Cambridge-Isanti (60.4)	3	2	15	7	55.4	50.0	Won 1
No. 25	Forest Lake (75.5)	4	0	12	9	55.6	51.9	Lost 2
No. 38	Duluth East (62.5)	0	3	11	11	57.5	50.3	Won 1
No. 47	Blaine (55.6)	6	1	10	12	53.7	57.5	Won 1
No. 49	Coon Rapids (50.6)	2	6	5	15	51.3	60.1	Won 1
No. 60	Andover (41.6)	5	4	5	17	47.0	60.9	Lost 2
No. 62	Anoka (37.8)	0	6	4	16	43.5	54.0	Lost 3

Not knowing anything on these teams in general, and seeing Forest Lake the other day, I would say this is a 2 team race with upset minded Blaine in the background.

Section 8AAAA Standings
QRF Rank	Team (QRF)	Section		Overall		For	Agst	Streak
		W	L	W	L	AVG	AVG
No. 8	Bemidji (105.0)	4	1	19	2	69.4	46.9	Won 9
No. 40	St. Cloud Apollo (60.5)	3	5	14	9	59.8	55.4	Lost 1
No. 32	Brainerd (67.4)	5	3	12	8	53.9	52.3	Won 1
No. 36	Elk River (65.2)	1	1	13	9	56.2	55.1	Won 3
No. 34	Alexandria (66.3)	5	4	12	9	65.9	56.4	Lost 1
No. 28	Moorhead (72.7)	3	5	11	9	55.8	57.6	Won 1
No. 39	Buffalo (61.5)	2	2	11	12	55.0	49.9	Lost 1
No. 50	St. Cloud Tech (49.3)	3	5	9	13	53.9	56.1	Won 1

See you in March at the big show Bemidji.